The appointment of Sugiono as Indonesia’s Foreign Minister under Prabowo Subianto’s administration has raised various concerns. With a military background and strategic role within the Gerindra Party, this decision signals a shift in Indonesia’s diplomatic approach. However, does Sugiono possess the necessary expertise to navigate the increasingly complex global landscape?
From Military to Diplomacy: Credibility and Competence
Sugiono’s experience lies in the military and political arenas, yet he lacks a solid diplomatic track record. Unlike his predecessors, such as Retno Marsudi, who built a career in diplomacy, Sugiono is primarily known as Prabowo’s loyalist and a former Army Lieutenant. His background includes serving as a strategic advisor within the party and playing key roles in military operations,. There is little evidence, if any, that he has played any role in international negotiations or diplomatic engagements. This raises doubts about his ability to handle intricate and complex international negotiations, particularly in multilateral forums such as ASEAN, the G20, and the UN.
Diplomacy is not merely about high-level political manoeuvring but also requires a deep understanding of economic policies, geopolitical landscapes, regional stability and security, and global governance. With Indonesia’s increasing role in international trade, climate agreements, and maritime disputes, an unseasoned official as the country’s diplomacy chief could weaken Indonesia’s negotiation leverage. Unlike military command structures, diplomacy necessitates a nuanced approach to multilateralism, requiring alliances and strategic partnerships beyond ideological alignments.
Sugiono as a Reflection of Prabowo’s Political Playbook
Prabowo’s early actions as president have provided clues about the type of leadership he intends to bring. His appointments—Sugiono included—reveal a pattern: prioritizing loyalty and military backgrounds over domain expertise. This suggests that rather than fostering meritocracy and an independent, strategically nuanced foreign policy, he personalised his government, placing trust in figures who are close to him personally and closely align with his vision of assertive nationalism and militaristic posturing.
Sugiono’s selection is particularly telling. While previous foreign ministers were chosen for their ability to manage Indonesia’s complex international relationships, Sugiono’s appointment indicates a pivotal change towards a foreign policy that is potentially more assertive and reactionary. This raises concerns over whether Indonesia’s diplomatic approach will shift from fostering partnerships to projecting power.
Indonesia’s Diplomacy: From Non-Aligned to Political Interests?
Indonesia has long upheld the principle of independent and active foreign policy, balancing its relations among global powers. However, given Sugiono’s political and military background, there are concerns that Indonesia’s foreign policy might shift towards prioritizing domestic political interests over long-term strategic goals. With regional tensions growing in the South China Sea and Indonesia’s position in ASEAN, Sugiono will face an immediate test in handling regional security concerns.
Furthermore, with China’s economic influence expanding into Southeast Asia through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a firm but strategic engagement is necessary to safeguard Indonesia’s economic sovereignty while maintaining cooperative ties with Beijing. How will Indonesia position itself amid US-China tensions, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and regional initiatives like ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific architecture? Will Sugiono be able to maintain Indonesia’s diplomatic independence, or will he push the country toward a more politically driven foreign policy?
Relations with the EU and the West: A New Challenge?
One significant concern is how Indonesia will handle its relations with the European Union and Western countries. A relevant case is Arif Havas Oegroseno, who was previously Indonesia’s ambassador to Berlin and is now a deputy foreign minister. During his tenure, Oregasono took a combative stance, particularly in criticizing the EU’s palm oil ban, portraying the EU as discriminatory and imperialist. Sugiono’s leadership may continue this confrontational approach, potentially harming trade relations and weakening Indonesia’s influence in policy discussions.
Indonesia’s palm oil industry is a crucial economic driver, but diplomatic engagements with the EU should focus on sustainable solutions rather than outright confrontation. Instead of dismissing environmental regulations as Western-imposed restrictions, Indonesia must work towards demonstrating its commitment to sustainability while ensuring fair trade agreements. This balance demands pragmatism and foresight — qualities Sugiono has yet to prove.
The Strategic Role of the Foreign Ministry
A competent foreign minister must not only navigate international relations but also craft policies that align with Indonesia’s long-term goals. This includes:
- Strengthening Indonesia’s economic diplomacy to attract investment while safeguarding national interests.
- Managing relations with neighboring countries, particularly in addressing border disputes and maritime claims.
- Enhancing Indonesia’s global standing in multilateral forums, especially concerning climate policy, digital economy regulations, and global security frameworks.
A foreign minister without the proper expertise may risk alienating key allies or undermining Indonesia’s diplomatic influence. This is particularly concerning as Indonesia seeks to expand its role within ASEAN and strengthen partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region.
As a trusted figure within Prabowo’s inner circle, Sugiono’s foreign policy might reflect more of the president’s political agenda rather than Indonesia’s long-term diplomatic interests. Under Prabowo’s administration, a shift toward a more assertive nationalistic foreign policy may emerge. While national interest should always be prioritized, diplomacy must remain a bridge for international cooperation rather than a tool for political rhetoric. A leader with a rigid or militaristic approach could jeopardize Indonesia’s ability to build lasting alliances.
Public Scrutiny and the Future of Indonesia’s Diplomacy
The selection of a Foreign Minister should be based on competence and a deep understanding of geopolitics, not a mere political loyalty. Moving forward, the public must scrutinize how Sugiono will shape Indonesia’s foreign policy and ensure that it serves broader national interests rather than short-term political gains.
The global landscape is evolving rapidly, with trade wars, climate negotiations, and technological advancements shaping diplomatic priorities. The role of Indonesia’s Foreign Minister will be critical in determining the country’s ability to adapt, engage, and lead in this dynamic environment. Whether Sugiono rises to the occasion or falls short of expectations remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Indonesia cannot afford to treat its diplomatic future as an afterthought.
