As Joko “Jokowi” Widodo nears the end of his tenure as Indonesia’s president, efforts are underway to create a glossy narrative of his success, particularly in economic management, in a bid to garner public sympathy. This comes at a time when calls for him to take responsibility for the destruction he has caused—and even demands for him to be brought to justice—are intensifying.
Despite initially promising an annual economic growth rate of 7 percent, Jokowi has only managed an average growth of 5 percent annually since he took office in 2014. This shortfall alone should be sufficient to consider his leadership a failure.
Yet, despite falling short on this and various other promises, many still see Jokowi as successful. The Indonesia Survey Circle, led by Denny JA, recently reinforced this narrative, citing a 5 percent growth rate, an increase in GDP from US$900 billion in 2014 to US$1.37 trillion in 2023, and a rise in income per capita from US$3,477 in 2014 to US$4,941 in 2023 as evidence of Jokowi’s success.
But wait—do most Indonesians actually feel as though they earn nearly US$5,000 a year (around IDR 80 million per year or nearly IDR 7 million per month)? In reality, this figure does not align with the experiences of ordinary Indonesians, indicating that something is clearly amiss.
Indeed, multiple factors highlight the inaccuracies of this narrative. A comprehensive analysis—combining human creativity and critical thinking with AI’s capabilities for data calculation and projection, based on publicly available data from the National Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank of Indonesia, and the World Bank—conducted by Artificial Intelligence for Advanced Indonesia (AIAI), an AI research and training center led by Okky Madasari, reveals significant issues related to wealth distribution, debt dependence, middle-class contraction, and stagnation in poverty rates, ultimately debunking the claim of Jokowi’s economic success.
Average Indonesians Actually Live on $1,700, Not $5,000, Per Year
Firstly, the GDP growth of $470 billion from 2014 to 2023 has been enjoyed predominantly by Indonesia’s wealthiest individuals. A December 2023 report from Forbes, for instance, showed that the net worth of the 50 richest Indonesians surged by 40 percent, reaching a record $252 billion, up from $180 billion in 2022. Considering that Indonesia’s economy grew by only around 5 percent during this period, it becomes evident that the wealthiest have captured most of the economic gains, highlighting a concentration of wealth that benefits a small group of tycoons.
The 5 percent annual GDP growth has primarily benefited the wealthiest, who have the capital to seize economic opportunities, exacerbating existing inequalities:
- Investment Disparities: Wealthy investors capitalize on growth sectors like infrastructure and digital technology, earning significant returns that further compound their wealth, perpetuating a cycle of wealth accumulation.
- Limited Economic Mobility: The majority of Indonesians, with limited disposable income, struggle to access investment opportunities and thus reap few benefits from economic growth. Stagnant wages and rising living costs offer little tangible relief.
Secondly, based on various reports, the 50 richest Indonesians were worth $252 billion in 2023. If we extrapolate this figure to the wealthiest 1 million Indonesians, they control over $900 billion of the nation’s GDP, leaving just $470 billion for the remaining 276.5 million citizens. Dividing this remaining GDP of $470 billion among 276.5 million people results in an average income per capita of approximately $1,700 annually, placing Indonesia on par with some of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia, such as Laos and Timor-Leste.
Thus, in reality, the average Indonesian lives on an annual income of $1,700, or around IDR 25 million per year—about 2 million rupiah per month. This figure accurately reflects what most Indonesians experience in their everyday lives.
Debt-Fueled Growth and Rising Liabilities
The claims of economic success are also overshadowed by the sharp rise in Indonesia’s external debt, which surged from $263 billion at the end of 2013 to $408 billion by 2024. This substantial increase over Jokowi’s tenure raises serious concerns about the nation’s long-term fiscal health. While borrowing for infrastructure and development is a common strategy for developing countries, the extent of this increase suggests an over-reliance on debt to fuel GDP growth.
This dependency on debt as a growth mechanism questions the sustainability and authenticity of Indonesia’s economic expansion. The significant rise in external debt aligns with the GDP growth observed during Jokowi’s administration, indicating that much of the supposed economic gains may have been artificially driven by borrowed funds rather than genuine productive growth. This pattern suggests that the reported GDP growth might be more a reflection of debt-fueled expenditure than actual increases in economic productivity and capability.
For instance, with an increase of around $150 billion in foreign debt during Jokowi’s tenure, the claim that GDP grew by $470 billion during his administration is misleading or at least grossly overstated, as at least $150 billion of that growth resulted from borrowing.
Poverty Rate Stagnation and Middle-Class Contraction
Despite the touted economic growth, Indonesia’s poverty rate has stubbornly remained between 9 to 10 percent of the population, affecting approximately 26 to 27 million people from 2014 to 2024. This persistence in poverty levels demonstrates that economic growth has not translated into meaningful improvements for a large segment of the population. If the government’s economic policies were genuinely successful, there should have been a more noticeable reduction in poverty rates alongside GDP growth.
Adding to these concerns is the contraction of Indonesia’s middle class. In 2019, middle-class Indonesians numbered 53.33 million, representing 21.45 percent of the population. By 2024, this number had decreased to 47.85 million, or just 17.13 percent of the population, as 9.48 million people slid into vulnerability to poverty. This shift signals growing economic instability and decreasing financial security for a substantial segment of the population.
In Conclusion
The data and numbers presented here lead to a single conclusion: Jokowi has failed, even in his much-celebrated economic development program. As with other aspects beyond the economy, Jokowi’s failure extends to democracy—many believe he has even undermined the nation’s democratic values. Thus, he fails in every democratic parameter, including media freedom, freedom of expression, law enforcement, and corruption eradication.