Under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, risks being perceived as a paper tiger—strong in rhetoric but weak in meaningful action—particularly on the international stage. Jokowi has rarely ventured into global diplomacy, shying away from prominent forums like the UN General Assembly. Instead, his administration has leaned heavily on economic diplomacy, encouraging diplomats to attract foreign investors by offering Indonesia’s natural resources, often at a discount. This economic pragmatism, epitomized by Jokowi’s focus on the mega project of Nusantara, Indonesia’s planned new capital in East Kalimantan, has dominated the country’s foreign policy, sidelining more strategic regional and global engagement.
Indonesia’s 2023 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides a case in point. While Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi claimed success through “silent diplomacy” in handling Myanmar’s ongoing conflict, the results were so understated that any tangible achievements were unclear by the time Indonesia’s tenure ended.
The rise of Prabowo Subianto as Indonesia’s next president could shift this narrative dramatically. Prabowo, who has voiced his belief that Indonesia, as a major nation, must take a more assertive role in global affairs, brings with him a background as defense minister and a visible presence at international forums. The potential fragmentation of Myanmar into smaller, ethnically-based states could present an early test for Prabowo’s regional leadership, allowing him to demonstrate whether he can guide Southeast Asia through one of its most pressing crises.
Ethnic Fragmentation: A Real Possibility
Myanmar’s deep ethnic diversity—home to over 135 recognized ethnic groups—has always been a double-edged sword. While the Bamar majority dominates the central lowlands, ethnic minorities such as the Shan, Karen, Kachin, and Rakhine control vast territories, many of which are governed by armed militias. The 2021 military coup reignited long-standing ethnic tensions, leading to civil wars that have brought the country to the brink of fragmentation.
If Myanmar disintegrates, it could resemble a collection of semi-autonomous or independent states, each controlled by ethnic militias with their own political agendas. Some may push for greater autonomy within a federal system, while others may seek outright independence. Such a development would represent a seismic shift in Myanmar’s political landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for neighboring powers.
Aung San Suu Kyi: A National Unifier or Merely a Bamar Leader?
Aung San Suu Kyi, once a beacon of Myanmar’s democratic hopes, has seen her image tarnished, both internationally and within her own country. Her failure to stand against the military’s persecution of the Rohingya Muslims in 2017 eroded her global reputation and damaged her relationship with many ethnic minorities. Despite this, she remains deeply popular among the Bamar majority, who view her as Myanmar’s legitimate leader.
The question is whether Suu Kyi’s influence extends beyond the Bamar heartland. Her ability to unify Myanmar’s various ethnic groups seems limited, particularly given the longstanding trust deficit between her and the country’s ethnic minorities. If Myanmar fragments, Suu Kyi may find herself as the leader of the Bamar people alone, unable to forge unity among the disparate ethnic states. Without genuine reconciliation and power-sharing with the country’s ethnic groups, her role as a unifier appears doubtful.
ASEAN and Indonesia’s Role: Navigating a Fractured Myanmar
As Myanmar edges closer to ethnic fragmentation, ASEAN, and by extension Indonesia, will face immense pressure to manage the crisis. Historically, ASEAN has adhered to a policy of non-interference in member states’ internal affairs. However, Myanmar’s conflict has already strained this principle, and a scenario in which the country breaks apart could force ASEAN to adopt a more proactive role in peacebuilding and conflict resolution.
Under Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia is poised to play a key role in navigating this regional crisis. Prabowo, who has openly expressed ambitions to be a regional leader, would likely attempt to mediate between Myanmar’s various ethnic factions. His leadership could push ASEAN toward more assertive engagement in resolving internal conflicts, marking a shift away from its traditional hands-off approach.
However, Prabowo will need to carefully balance diplomacy with regional stability. The potential fragmentation of Myanmar could lead to a refugee crisis, increase arms smuggling, and destabilize Southeast Asia’s borders. Indonesia’s role in fostering dialogue between Myanmar’s ethnic factions and working with ASEAN to stabilize the region will be critical.
China’s Role: Expanding Influence in a Fragmented Myanmar
As Myanmar teeters on the brink of disintegration, China stands to expand its influence in the region. China has long cultivated relationships with both Myanmar’s military and ethnic militias, particularly those along its border. In the event of Myanmar’s fragmentation, China could deepen its engagement with these newly formed states, offering economic investments and diplomatic support in exchange for strategic loyalty.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already established a strong foothold in Myanmar, with projects such as pipelines, ports, and roads connecting China to the Indian Ocean. A fragmented Myanmar would present China with an opportunity to solidify its influence by making deals with individual ethnic states, gaining strategic control over key territories. This would give China a stronger presence in Southeast Asia, enhancing its position in its ongoing rivalry with the United States.
While Chinese investment could provide much-needed resources for Myanmar’s ethnic states, it also poses a risk of deepening China’s influence at ASEAN’s expense. A fragmented Myanmar aligned with China could disrupt ASEAN unity, creating tension between the regional bloc and China as they compete for influence in this new political landscape.
The US-China Rivalry: Strengthening China’s Hand?
Myanmar’s fragmentation would not only reshape Southeast Asia but also have broader implications for the U.S.-China rivalry. While the U.S. has condemned Myanmar’s military coup and imposed sanctions, its direct involvement in Myanmar’s affairs has been limited. A fractured Myanmar, with smaller ethnic states aligned with China, could shift the regional balance of power further in China’s favor.
If China successfully asserts influence over these ethnic states, it could further entrench its presence across Southeast Asia, weakening U.S. influence. This would tilt the regional power dynamics more firmly toward China, complicating U.S. efforts to maintain its Indo-Pacific strategy in countering Chinese dominance.
Conclusion: A Region in Flux
The possibility of Myanmar fragmenting into smaller ethnic states presents a growing challenge for Southeast Asia. Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence as a unifying figure appears limited, leaving a leadership vacuum that could lead to ethnic fragmentation. ASEAN, under Prabowo Subianto’s leadership, will be forced to reconsider its non-interference policy and adopt a more assertive role in managing regional conflicts.
China’s opportunistic involvement in a fragmented Myanmar will likely deepen, further strengthening its influence in Southeast Asia at the expense of the United States. As the US-China rivalry intensifies, Myanmar’s disintegration could become a key battleground for influence in the region, reshaping Southeast Asia’s political landscape for years to come.
