Having lost twice in presidential races to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and eventually serving under him as part of his cabinet, Prabowo Subianto’s confidence seems deeply fractured. Now, as he takes on the presidency, it’s clear he believes that whatever his predecessor said or did must have been correct, ignoring the millions of Indonesians—especially students—who urge him to take a different path. Prabowo may also feel indebted to Jokowi, believing that Jokowi’s endorsement and cawe-cawe helped him win the 2024 presidential election, further eroding his independence as a leader.
This lack of self-assurance is glaring not only in the unprecedented more than 100-member cabinet, which includes deputy ministers and heads of strategic councils/institution, he has assembled, but also in the selection of those who fill these positions. Many of his appointees appear to be chosen more for their loyalty during the election than for their ability to lead Indonesia through its challenges. Prabowo seems so obsessed with rewarding his political allies that he has packed his cabinet with individuals who appeased him during the campaign, regardless of their competence.
Prabowo’s decision to retain half of Jokowi’s ministers instead of selecting his own team or bringing in fresh talent from Indonesia’s vast pool of nearly 300 million people reflects a lack of confidence in his own leadership. It signals an alarming continuation of Jokowi’s policies and governance style, which have already been criticized for failing to bring meaningful progress.
Prabowo’s massive more than 100-member cabinet not only reflects his insecurity but also places a significant strain on Indonesia’s national budget. Maintaining such a large number of ministers and deputy ministers requires substantial resources—each position comes with offices, staff, and budgets, diverting funds that could be better used for public services like education, healthcare, or infrastructure development.
By comparison, many larger countries with far bigger economies have far more efficient government structures:
- United States: With a population of over 330 million and a much larger economy, the U.S. has only 15 cabinet ministers (excluding advisory positions).
- China: A nation of 1.4 billion people, China’s State Council, which serves as its cabinet, has 26 members.
- India: India, another country of 1.4 billion people, maintains a cabinet of 29 members.
In contrast, Indonesia, with a population of around 280 million, is burdened by a more than 100-member cabinet, making it one of the most bloated governments in the world. The financial implications of this decision are clear: government inefficiency and budgetary waste. Indonesia’s resources will be tied up in maintaining a bureaucratic system rather than solving pressing issues like poverty, education, and economic stagnation.
Danger of Authoritarianism and Rejection of Criticism
What’s even more concerning is Prabowo’s open disdain for opposition. In numerous speeches on various occasions, Prabowo has stated that he does not believe in opposition, seeing it as unnecessary for the nation. He has dismissed critics, claiming that discussions in podcasts or critiques in the media amount to “talk without real contribution” to Indonesia’s development. This attitude signals a troubling rejection of democratic values, where opposition and debate are crucial to governance. Instead, Prabowo advocates for a singular, uncontested approach to leadership, a mindset that can lead to authoritarianism.
This fear is not unfounded. Prabowo’s past is marred by accusations of kidnapping and detaining pro-democracy activists during the final years of the Suharto regime in the late 1990s. While these allegations were never fully prosecuted, they have haunted his political career, raising concerns that his leadership could shift toward authoritarian rule. If Prabowo continues to stifle dissent and eliminate political opposition, Indonesia could see a rollback of the democratic freedoms it has fought hard to secure since the fall of Suharto.
Economic Mirage: Jokowi’s Legacy of Stagnation
Prabowo’s cabinet picks suggest a continuation of the problematic economic policies that Jokowi implemented during his presidency. Jokowi’s so-called economic success is largely a myth, built on unsustainable debt and concentrated wealth. Under his administration, external debt soared from US$263 billion in 2013 to US$408 billion by 2024, with much of the touted GDP growth being driven by borrowed money rather than real economic productivity.
While Jokowi’s administration claims GDP growth from US$900 billion in 2014 to US$1.37 trillion in 2023, this figure hides deep inequalities. Most of the economic gains have been captured by Indonesia’s wealthiest citizens, leaving the average Indonesian with an income closer to US$1,700 annually, a far cry from the official US$5,000 per capita figure touted by the government.
The rising external debt also poses a significant risk to Indonesia’s future economic stability. As borrowing increases, so do interest payments, further limiting the government’s ability to invest in critical sectors. Meanwhile, poverty rates have remained stagnant at around 9-10%, and the middle class is shrinking, with 9.48 million people having fallen back into economic vulnerability since 2019. This is a clear indication that Jokowi’s economic policies have failed to benefit the majority of Indonesians.
The Future Under Prabowo: Worse Than Jokowi?
If Jokowi’s presidency was marked by deception, debt, and declining democracy, Prabowo’s leadership threatens to take Indonesia further down the path of authoritarianism and inefficiency. By refusing to entertain criticism or opposition, Prabowo risks turning Indonesia into a one-party state where dissent is crushed, and the government operates unchecked.
The bloated cabinet Prabowo has assembled serves as a microcosm of his governance style: inefficient, politically motivated, and disconnected from the needs of ordinary Indonesians. The people filling these cabinet positions are more focused on polishing the image of Prabowo and Jokowi than on addressing the pressing economic and social challenges facing the nation.
If Prabowo continues on this path, Indonesia’s future is bleak. The nation will face budgetary crises, economic stagnation, and a possible rollback of democratic freedoms. The nightmare scenario is that Prabowo’s administration could become even worse than Jokowi’s, with authoritarian tendencies stifling any chance for progress or reform.
Will the Civil Society Stand Up?
In the face of this looming crisis, it will be up to civil society and conscientious citizens to bring sanity back to Indonesia. With the government in the hands of an insecure and potentially authoritarian leader, the people must stand up for democratic principles, accountability, and real progress. Only through collective action can Indonesia prevent the descent into mediocrity, corruption, and authoritarian rule that now seems inevitable under Prabowo.
In the end, the responsibility to save Indonesia from this trajectory lies not with the government, but with its people.
