It is hardly a coincidence that Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto and the US’s Donald Trump have come to power simultaneously. It’s a sign of the times, reflecting a global shift away from traditional liberal democratic norms.
Progressivism and wokeism appear to be waning, replaced by conservatives, populists, and pragmatists—or whatever label one might choose. These leaders and their supporters often prioritize immediate gratification and self-serving narratives over long-term considerations, however detached from reality those narratives may be. The pursuit of power, often through transactional means, appears to supersede any commitment to broader societal good.
Those who championed democracy and believed they fought for it have squandered their opportunity. Their failure to deliver on promises, coupled with hypocrisy and allegations of prioritizing personal gain over public service, has significantly eroded public trust. Equality, accountability, and human rights have become hollow phrases; “democracy” itself is arguably the world’s most abused word.
The US, a self-proclaimed champion of democracy and human rights, has ironically become a significant perpetrator of human rights abuses—from violence against minorities and racism at home to the instigation of conflicts and wars in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere—under successive Republican and Democratic presidents. This hypocrisy weakens the moral authority of US advocacy for democracy abroad.
Obama’s presidency bears some responsibility for Trump’s rise, much as Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s tenure contributed to the ascendance of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and subsequently, Prabowo. Both Obama and Yudhoyono failed to effectively instill progressive values and ethical considerations in their populations, who often prioritized immediate material gains and promises over long-term well-being.
The prospect of a Trump-Prabowo presidency in 2024, following Jokowi’s tenure, presents a particularly troubling scenario for Indonesian democracy. Jokowi’s legacy, marked by accusations of undermining democratic institutions—weakening checks and balances through strategic appointments and legislative maneuvers—has created fertile ground for further backsliding. His administration’s alleged use of the police force for partisan interests has further eroded its legitimacy and independence, creating a dangerous precedent for future leaders.
Jokowi has weakened checks and balances through his strategic placement of loyalists within key institutions, coupled with legislative maneuvers that potentially reduced institutional independence, cast a shadow over his legacy.
His use of the police force for his own interests and ambition has further rotten this law enforcement body to a point where it will almost be impossible for his successors to reverse it. There is a clear chance that Prabowo and other future presidents copy his conduct, turning it into a blue print to utilize it for preservation of power. It will preserve the culture of zero accountability and impunity in Indonesia. We fear that a Trump-Prabowo administration might further weaken police independence, prioritizing security concerns over human rights.
Similar concerns exist regarding the independence of the judiciary. Allegations of political interference in judicial processes raise questions about fairness and impartiality. A less-committed US administration might not actively advocate for judicial reform, creating space for further erosion of judicial independence.
The weakening of the KPK, a crucial anti-corruption body, during Jokowi’s tenure is a significant cause for alarm. Attempts to reduce its authority and independence cast doubt on Indonesia’s commitment to tackling corruption effectively. This could lead to a greater tolerance of corruption under a new administration, potentially harming economic development and stability.
This already perilous situation is compounded by the powerful, non-democratic China, a pragmatic actor pursuing a transactional foreign policy that often prioritizes national interest over democratic norms. China’s growing economic and political influence in Southeast Asia, coupled with its assertive actions in the South China Sea, presents a significant external threat to Indonesian democracy.
The convergence of Trump’s transactional approach, Prabowo’s authoritarian tendencies, and China’s assertive pragmatism creates a triple threat to Indonesian democracy. This confluence could also exacerbate several critical issues within the region.
In the handling of fractured Myanmar, a less-committed US under Trump, combined with a potentially authoritarian Prabowo administration, might offer limited pressure on the junta in Myanmar. This could allow the crisis to fester, potentially impacting regional stability and further emboldening authoritarian regimes within Southeast Asia.
Indonesia’s approach to the South China Sea disputes could become more accommodating to China under a Prabowo presidency, potentially neglecting regional cooperation and international law in favour of bilateral economic gains. A transactional US under Trump might offer less support for Indonesian claims or regional initiatives, leading to a further erosion of regional stability.
The diminished influence of a less-engaged US under Trump, combined with a more assertive China and Indonesia under Prabowo, could create an unstable regional power dynamic, potentially inciting an arms race within Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, a less principled US relationship might provide less incentive for Indonesia to strengthen its already weakened democratic institutions—the police, judiciary, and KPK. This could lead to a cascade effect, where weakened institutions fail to provide checks and balances against executive power, facilitating further abuse of authority and undermining the rule of law.
The potential for a Trump-Prabowo presidency, coupled with the assertive pragmatism of China, presents a lethal combination threatening Indonesian democracy and regional stability.
We believe that this convergence demands urgent attention from the international community to support Indonesia’s civil society, advocate for democratic reforms, and promote regional cooperation based on respect for international law and human rights.
The future of Indonesian democracy, and the broader Southeast Asian region, hangs in the balance. That’s why we call on all civil society groups and proponents of democracy to work together in anticipating of any possible threats to humanity in this part of the world.
